The Retention
Equation: What Keeps First-Year Students Enrolled
Nearly one in three students who start college don't return to the same institution for a second year. According to the National Student Clearinghouse, only 69.1% of students who began in fall 2024 returned to the same institution the following fall. Many never come back: roughly one in five working adults in the U.S. has some college but no degree. With enrollment competition rising and public budgets tightening, keeping the students your institution already has is becoming ever more important for institutional health.
There is not a single proven formula to improve retention, as individual students and institutional contexts make each case unique. However, scholars agree that there are four key factors that contribute to retention: motivation, momentum, sense of self-efficacy, and community and belonging. Student orientation is an important first step to establishing these.
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Retention by the Numbers
69.1%
National retention rate for the 2024 cohort.
10.9%
Improvement in first-year retention rate from 2012 to 2024 (58.2%--> 69.1%)
$1.2M
Estimated additional annual revenue from retaining 30 additional students at a public, regional university.
Sources: National Student Clearinghouse, IPEDS. The $1.2M is based on average tuition rate of $10,000 per year across four years.
Student Motivation
The precondition for a student's continuous enrollment is their personal motivation. They need to have goals that they wish to achieve, and a sense that they're capable of achieving tangible, meaningful outcomes. Students who perceive their education as relevant and valuable are much more likely to continue pursuing their education and overcome the challenges along the way. By connecting classroom learning to real-world value, and by helping students see the path forward to graduation and then post-graduation success, institutions can spur students' motivation to continue. Motivation gets students in the door. Momentum is what keeps them moving.
Checklist: Helping Students Stay Motivated
Start career conversations early, with advisors, mentors, and career counselors and connect coursework to career outcomes in first-year courses
Clarify academic progression paths for students, from onboarding to graduation
Integrate meaningful experiential learning opportunities in first-year courses
Ensure an engaging and satisfactory academic experience for students
Academic Momentum
Academic momentum, which refers to the pace, continuity, and success of students’ academic progress, is a foundational concept in student retention research. Although momentum is closely associated with degree completion, a substantial body of research also shows that early momentum is strongly related to student persistence and retention. Students who successfully complete early coursework and accumulate credits build academic skills, gain confidence, and clarify their academic direction, creating a self-reinforcing process that places them on a path toward retention and graduation.
Higher education institutions should build momentum flags into their early-warning systems. By monitoring early indicators—such as first-term credit accumulation, course completion rates, gateway course performance, enrollment continuity, and progress toward degree requirements—institutions can identify risks and intervene before students fall off track. Moreover, institutions can create or disrupt momentum through course sequencing and availability, advising, academic supports, and the academic experiences in gateway courses. A strong momentum is tied to students' self-perception of their worth and ability.
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Sense of Self-Efficacy
A student’s self-efficacy—their belief in their ability to complete tasks and achieve success—is crucial to their retention. Early college experiences significantly shape a student's confidence in their academic abilities and, by extension, their persistence and retention.
When these early experiences are frustrating, unsupportive, or filled with roadblocks, students may lose sight of their goals or doubt their ability to reach them. Institutions can build self-efficacy by creating smooth, supportive transitions through orientations and first-year programs. Institutions can also promote support services and monitor early risk signals so they can step in before challenges pile up.
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Institutions can intentionally foster community building:
Use collaborative, problem-based learning so students build relationships in class
Support affinity groups that help students find community on campus
Gamify the orientation experience to help students build initial connections and explore campus resources
Review housing placements and experiences to help students connect with peers
Community and Belonging
Motivation, momentum, and a sense of self-efficacy are largely individual, but there is also a crucial external element of retention: feeling a sense of belonging on campus (or in the virtual community). New college students are leaving behind their high school and home communities and moving into a new culture. Research shows that students who feel valued members of their community are more likely to overcome challenges that arise during the course of their studies. A sense of belonging is shaped both by the broader campus climate and by the interactions students have with their peers, faculty, and staff. Belonging helps to foster a sense of self-efficacy—"I belong here"—and engagement on campus, which in turn leads to greater retention.
Where It Comes Together: New Student Orientation
New student orientation plays a critical role in a successful transition by introducing students to available resources, setting institutional expectations, and fostering early community building. Research shows that new student orientation has a profound impact on student success and retention rates. Whether they are online or on campus, traditional or non-traditional, first-time or transfer, a well-structured orientation sets the foundation for students to continue enrollment and succeed.
Putting it Together: Where to Start
No single initiative or program wins retention. It builds when students know why they are here, see themselves making progress toward meaningful goal, believe they can succeed, and feel they belong. Orientation is where those pieces first come together. Developing a strategy to intentionally encourage these elements will help your institution better support students and grow retention.
How Unifex Supports Retention: From to Insight to impact
Assess
A proprietary Student Experience and Retention survey designed to assess how well your institution supports incoming students along the core elements of retention
Listen
Focus groups and interviews with students, faculty, and staff reveal what the numbers can't.
Design
Workshops with faculty and staff to review findings and co-create targeted solutions that are right for your institution
Implement
Sharper orientation, first-year experience, and advising, built on what we heard. Unifex helps you implement and continuously calibrate and improve
Further Reading
Bandura, A. (1997). Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control. W. H. Freeman.
Jenkins, D., & Bailey, T. (2017). Early Momentum Metrics: Why They Matter for College Improvement. Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University.
Kuh, G. D., Cruce, T. M., Shoup, R., Kinzie, J., & Gonyea, R. M. (2008). Unmasking the effects of student engagement on first-year college grades and persistence. The Journal of Higher Education, 79(5), 540–563.
Strayhorn, T. L. (2019). College Students' Sense of Belonging: A Key to Educational Success for All Students (2nd ed.). Routledge.
Tinto, V. (1993). Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition (2nd ed.). University of Chicago Press.
